The months-long political instability and conflict in Nepal seem to end in the next week as Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is all set to undergo a floor test during a Parliament session scheduled on May 10, 2021.
During a meeting held on May 4, the Cabinet had recommended President Bidya Devi Bhandari to summon a session of House of Representatives on May 10 for the PM to seek a vote of confidence.
“The Prime Minister will seek a vote of confidence on May 10,” said Lila Nath Shrestha, Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs. “This is just a day-long session.”
PM Oli requires 138 votes to prove his majority in the Parliament and continue his stay in power. Of the total 275 seats in the Lower House of the Federal Parliament, PM Oli-led ruling party CPN-UML has 121 seats and requires additional 17 seats to win the vote of confidence.
However, the main opposition party Nepali Congress (NC), with 63 seats, and CPN (Maoist Center), with 49 seats, are most likely to vote against the PM. So, the fate of Oli is solely dependent on Janata Samajbadi Party, which has 32 seats in Parliament.
Unfortunately, PM Oli is not likely to get all the votes of JSP in his favor. The Bhattarai-Yadav faction of JSP, with almost 18 lawmakers, is against Oli. Hence, only the Thakur-Mahato faction is in favor of Oli.
So, to prove his majority in the Parliament, Oli must garner votes from Rastriya Janamorcha (RJM), Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP), Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), and one independent lawmaker, in addition to all the votes from Thakur-Mahato faction.
On the other hand, the opposition parties NC and Moist Centre require all the 32 seats of JSP to form a new coalition government if the Oli-led government fails in the floor test.
However, the three parties are unlikely to stand united for a new power-sharing.
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